Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's # 2

4 Philadelphia 76ers

Count me among the reactionary majority who thought, "With Elton Brand, this team is really nice." They go with Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala, Thad Young, Brand, and Dalembert, and they look like a diet, East Coast version of the Spurs.

I got all excited: "the Sixers can challenge for the East!" When the Celtics hit the championship hangover wall in January, who will be at their heels? "The Sixers!" Who's a sure-fire 3rd seed in the East? "The Sixers!"

I even included them in my "cluster of elites" in the Eastern Conference (see below). In my initial calculation, these guys were a Bentley.

But the more I looked at this team and the rest of the East, the car didn't start as smoothly as I expected. The Celtics and Pistons are still at the top. The Cavs didn't make huge improvements, but they sure didn't get worse. The Magic? They only added a premium perimeter defender, one Mickael Pietrus, who doesn't need to shoot to be effective. It doesn't hurt that Dwight Howard got a year older and is surrounded by tall, skilled shooters.

The Raptors? They finally promoted Jose Calderon and traded TJ Ford for a 6' 11" pal for Chris Bosh. What's more, it's a motivated 6' 11" Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh dominated during the Olympics.

The Sixers? Yes they added Elton Brand. But all 6-foot-8 of Elton Brand didn't look so hot during the preseason. He also tore his achilles. I mentioned this previously, but I don't know anyone who's torn an achilles. Didn't it kill Achilles? This doesn't mean it's uncurable--from all signs, Brand has recovered--but there isn't a precedent for achilles-tear-to-All-Star. What's more, the reason that the Sixers were such a tough out in the Playoffs was because of their style: run, run, run. The Pistons had trouble keeping up and setting thier infamous pace.

So they added Brand? The quintessential plotter PF? I'm not saying this a sinking ship, but I don't think it adds up to a playoff winner either.

Saab.

#6 seed in the East. 1st round exit.


5 Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas Mavericks

"Remember me? 2007 MVP?"

Not many in the NBA have endured a tougher 18 months than Herr Nowitzki. To top off the 07 and 08 playoff stinkbombs, his German national team tanked it in the Olympics. They weren't a top flight contender, but they went 1-3 and didn't even entertain thoughts about the medal round.

So unlike, say (ironically), Dwyane Wade, Nowitzki enters the 08-09 season with marginal expectations. While Wade rides high with a gold medal and buzz and interest, Big D and Dirk are completely under the radar. No one expects better than the 6-spot in the West; some envision a Nugget-like tail spin. Either way, there hasn't been a lot of hype about a wiedergeburt in Dallas. It's felt more like the last go-round in beat-up old car.

I've never put much stock in NBA coaches, but Rick Carlisle is an interesting one. His first season with the Pacers in 03-04, they won the most games in the league: 61. He played for the 86 Champion Celtics. His players have always liked him. If anything, he's the anti-Avery Johnson. He's laissez-faire. He's let it be.

How does all of this effect Nowitzki? In some ways, it's a return to Nowitzki's younger years with Don Nelson. Instead of a measured, specific plan, it's a more open, relaxed approach. It also doesn't hurt that instead second-guessing Nowitzki's killer instinct, everyone is trying to decipher Josh Howard.

We know how Dirk has performed under scrutiny and heightened expectation. How about when there isn't either one?

Bentley. 25+ ppg.


6 Miwaukee Bucks

This teams is full of scorers: Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut, Charlie Bell, and Joe Alexander. Each of these players looks for one thing on the floor: a shot. That's not a knock: all six of these guys can fill it up. But let's be clear. They are not stoppers.

Their new coach? He's the ultimate, tight-leash, defense-first coach. He wore out his welcome in Phoenix and Chicago. He found unexpected initial success with young, tough players, but then they all gave up on him. His approach works with those kinds of players: first-contract players, hungry to prove themselves, win, and get paid.

This team? They're not young and the majority of them are already paid. Redd through 2010. Jefferson through 2011. Bogut through 2014. Bell through 2012. Even Dan Gadzuric is paid through 2011.

The two guys who are young, hungry, and unpaid? Villanueva and Alexander. Sure they were tough Big East players, but neither one was a lock-down defender. Both excel on offense. Is this all going to change when Skiles shows up and the team's leaders don't buy into his philosophy?

Even the team's up-and-coming point guard, Ramon Sessions, seems the opposite from its coach. In the last seven games of 07-08 season, Session topped 10 assists six times. With starters minutes, he blew up. He even dropped 24 assists in a late-season loss to the Bulls. How does that translate under the Skiles regime?

The expectations in Milwaukee are conservative. No one is yelling playoffs, but there isn't much talk of 60 losses either. This team lost 56 games last year. 60 isn't too far off.

Saab.

60 losses. Lott-er-y. Mid-season fire-sale. Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, and Villanueva all packing their bags.

[Also, if Redd ends up in Cleveland via trade for the title run, could there be a better side-kick for LeBron? Every barrel roll to the hoop will free up a) Mo Williams and b) Michael Redd. The Bucks alumni could quickly become the most important additions. Sorry Bynum, Andrew, Oden, Greg, O'Neal, Jermaine, and Mason, Roger.]

Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's # 1

At the outset of each new season, the media and league anoint a handful of players and teams. Last year, the new-look Boston Celtics held the banner while players like Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh filled conversations. They were the potential Bentley's of 2007-8. Big time teams and players, ready to make a leap.

Was there some skepticism about them? You bet.

After all, the obvious defect of the eventual Champion Celtics was their age. Despite their best efforts, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen began to fulfill this thinking.

Similarly, there were doubts about Howard--"he's still 21"--and Chris Bosh--"he's too skinny."

But like big, bad, beautiful Bentley's, this handful of folks defeated their skeptics; they lived up to the expectations. In the end, the Celtics won it all, Howard won the Slam Dunk contest and a playoff series, and Bosh carried an inconsistent Raptors bunch back to the playoffs. On the surface they looked stellar, and after a few hundred miles, they held form, like a Bentley.

That's not to say that all skepticism about NBA teams and players goes unproven. Some look great on the surface, but are deficient underneath. Think of the 2007-8 Miami Heat. This group we qualify as Saab's. You expect a steady performer, but it doesn't reach expectations: it breaks down and can't even hold all of the boxes.

Without further ado, here is the first group of SS's Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's.

1 Chris Paul, G, New Orleans Hornets

It seems odd to include Chris Paul in any skeptical discussion. As I mentioned yesterday, he finished 2nd in MVP voting and he led the Hornets to the second round of the NBA Playoffs last year--no small feats.

A year ago, the expectations were fair: All-Star season, playoff appearance, double-double average.

What are the expectations this year? It's more like 60 wins, MVP, and NBA Championship. That's a pretty heavy bevy.

I think it's fair to say that Paul ran out of gas during the Olympics. After nearly 100 NBA games and then a dozen more for team USA, Paul bottomed out.

For these reasons and the unfair expectations placed upon him, I think Paul comes back to earth this year. Not in a mediocre sense, but in a more leveled sense.

With the new-look Rockets challenging for the division and the Lakers still very strong, Paul and the Hornets are right where they were a year ago--near the top of the West. Does the addition of James Posey and the extra miles on Paul translate into a Western Conference Finals appearance. I would say "no."

2008-9 projection: Saab

20-and-10, 50 wins, #4 seed, All-Star, second round of NBA playoffs


2 Portland Trail Blazers

It's easy to get excited about the Blazers. They are young. They are full of "nice" guys. They won 41 games last year. In a video game, they are far-and-away the most fun team. They have Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, AND Greg Oden.

Everybody wants to pencil them in for 50 wins, an opening playoff series win, and a nice, happy path towards eventual NBA supremacy.

Well, it's not going to be that easy. Especially in the Western Conference.

Let's take a look west of the Mississippi. Barring any long-term effects of Deron Williams' ankle injury, there a handful of elite, title-contending teams in the West:

1 LA Lakers
2 Utah Jazz
3 Houston Rockets
4 New Orleans Hornets

Then there is a group of older, but still very good teams:

5 San Antonio Spurs
6 Dallas Mavericks
7 Phoenix Suns

After them, a spat of intriguing teams:

Portland Trail Blazers
Denver Nuggets
GS Warriors
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers

And finally, the lottery bound group:

13 Minnesota Timberwolves
14 Memphis Grizzlies
15 OK City Thunder

Would anybody be surprised if the Blazers leap-frogged one or two of the older teams? Ended up as the 6 seed and then took the Jazz to seven games?

Would you be surprised if they won 41 games again and finished 9th?

2008-9 projection: Saab

42 wins, 8th seed, swept by Lakers


3 Derrick Rose, G, Chicago Bulls

After a summer-league injury, Rose abruptly fell off of the radar. Everyone remembered Greg Oden, fell for Jerryd Bayless, and forgot about Rose.

Remember Marco Belinelli?

The Italian guard was the 2007 NBA Summer League version of Jerryd Bayless. He surprised everyone. Lit up the summer league.

In the end, that was Belinelli's apex. During the regular season, he averaged 7 minutes in 33 games for the Warriors.

Will Bayless fall off the same way? Probably not, but it's worth considering.

Rose is no slouch. He has shined so far in the preseason.

Helping his case are the moderate expectations placed on his team, the Chicago Bulls. Unlike the Blazers, whom they oddly resemble, the Bulls are not expected to jump into the playoff picture or win 50 games. If they get back to .500, everyone will be pleased.

Rookie coach Vinny del Negro will have a year under the belt. Rookie and new cornerstone Derrick Rose will have his sea legs. And the Ben Gordon saga will naturally run its course.

But come February, this team could be running at full steam with this group:

G Derrick Rose
G Larry Hughes
F Luol Deng
F Drew Gooden
C Joakim Noah

That's not a bad line-up. Then remember that a motivated, 1-year rental of Ben Gordon is the first guy off the bench, followed by Andreas Nocioni and improving Tyrus Thomas.

After some consideration, Derrick Rose has some nice droogs for running mates. Derrick Rose could still end up ROY and the Bulls could very well hop into one of the 7-8 playoffs spots.

For good measure, here's how the East stacks up.

Like in the West, there's a cluster of elites:

1 Boston Celtics
2 Detroit Pistons
3 Cleveland Cavs
4 Phila Sixers

Then there's a duo of almost-elite:

5 Toronto Raptors
6 Orlando Magic

followed by a mess of potential first round fodder:

Atlanta Hawks
Chicago Bulls
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers

some major question marks:

11 Washington Wizards
12 Milwaukee Bucks
13 Charlotte Bobcats

and finally the lottery locks:

14 New York Knicks
15 New Jersey Nets

2008-9 projection: Bentley

16-and-6 per game, ROY, 8-seed

Re: Top 50

Tom Ziller finally unveiled his top 10. As a prognosticator, I didn't come very close.

Here's his (mine are below):

10 Yao Ming
9 Dwight Howard
8 Dirk Nowitzki
7 Amare Stoudemire
6 Dwyane Wade
5 Tim Duncan
4 Kevin Garnett
3 Kobe Bryant
2 Chris Paul
1 LeBron James

Given my previous predictions, I should have some beef with this decade. But after reading each of Ziller's posts and arguments, I was sold.

My major mistake in value estimation was Dwight Howard and I think Ziller has it right. He fits nicely at 9--above Yao, but below the Dirk/Amare unit and the Duncan/KG unit. After all, he does not have a jump shot, let alone a free-throw shot.

After evaluating all of this, the one question mark for SS is Chris Paul. More than ever, the Paul love-fest has emanated at the start of the 2008-9 season. It's well-deserved too, considering the All-Star campaign, insane PER score (projected to top 30 this year), NBA Playoff run, and Olympic display.

But to wax rhetorical, is he the second best player in the NBA? As Ziller argued, is he in the convo with craza Isaiah and Magic Johnson? He did finish second in MVP voting last year...

It's convenient to be a knee-jerk contrarian, especially when discussing young players, but the lasting image in my mind of Paul from the last year is not the All-Star game, not the Mavs Playoffs series, not even the SI cover--it's of him (and all of team USA) during the Olympics chasing Australian (and St. Mary's) point guard Paddy Mills down the court, failing to stop a younger, inferior point guard.


Sure, this is a unique and small sample, but I find it relevant.

This is not to say I doubt Chris Paul and his point guard prowess; I am merely stating my curiosity and skepticism. With that said, here is Saul Sierce's 2008-9 list of "skeptical bentley's and saab's..."