More 08 Draft Discussion

After unveiling the Pre-season Rookie Ranks and going over the draft picks again, a few more thoughts jumped out:

1. Who is Jason Thompson, C, Sacramento Kings?

The big fella hails from Rider is a small private university with two campuses in Lawrenceville, NJ and Princeton, NJ. Thompson is the first Rider basketball player to ever be drafted. In 08 he was the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference POY and averaged over 20-and-10. He scored in double figures in all 34 of Rider's games. He also put up big numbers against superior competition:

He went for 24-and-15 in a 72-63 loss to North Carolina State. Then followed that up with 24-and-7 in an 82-69 loss to Kansas State. More importantly, he outplayed Michael Beasley, who uncharacteristically had just 13 points alongside 10 rebounds.

Against the toast of the MAAC, Siena, Thompson did the same: 23-and-21 in an 89-75 win, and 22-and-12 in a 74-53 loss. Recall that Siena, a 13-seed, dispatched Vanderbilt 83-62, before falling to Villanova 84-72 in the Tourney.

With that said, the numbers are obviously encouraging. So are the splits against the best competition he faced.

As a King, he will however face some obstacles and so it is difficult to project how he will perform. After all, this is essentially the same pick they made last year (Spencer Hawes, 10th pick). What's more, is he any better than Sheldon Williams, whom the Kings acquired from the Hawks in the Mike Bibby trade? With Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore, Hawes, and Williams already in the mix, Thompson's minute will likely be slim.

2. Remember Chris Doulgas-Roberts, G, New Jersey Nets?

The Memphis Tiger slasher fell to the fortieth pick.

Unlike Thompson, CDR is a known commodity. He got plenty of TV time with the elite Tigers--especially in the Tennessee showdown and the NCAA tournament.

A lot of folks point to the Tennessee game and the Kansas Championship game as a measuring stick because they were the two toughest games of the season for CDR and the Tigers. They were also Memphis' only two losses.

In the UT game, Doulgas-Roberts was rather ineffective, notching just 14 points in the 66-62 loss. As for the KU Championship game, it is hard to call his performance a short-coming, considering his 22 points and the quality of the Jayhawks team. Regardless, he faced judgment for those two games and the Tigers ultimate second-place finish.

Is that the reason he fell to 40? Or is it because he is 6-5 and just 190 pounds? Or something else?

Whatever the reason, it is probably unfair because he can flat-out score. He is a classic NBA SG and an underrated defender. On a team like the 2009 Nets, everyone will get their chances, and that is essentially what CDR needs. Don't be surprised if he busts out for a handful of 20-point games. Let the young Rip Hamilton comparisons begin.

3. There is not a better scenario for Brandon Rush than in the Pacers offense

The recent NCAA Champion was one of the most consistent players in the last three years. He averaged 13-and-5 each year in Lawrence, KS. While those numbers don't jump out, remember that he shared the ball with Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers, Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur, and even Sasha Kaun. He was never the featured player in the offense because no one was.

With that said, Rush is an elite player. Like most pundits have said, he is big at 6-7 and NBA-ready after his tenure at KU and a National Championship. On top of that, Jim O'Brien's offense in Indiana is tailor-made for players like Rush--effective mid-range and three-point scorers. This is not to say that Rush will evolve into an NBA All-Star (he very well may), but rather to project him as a career double-figure scorer in the NBA.

Every great team needs a player (or two) like Rush. Effective scorers who can hold their own on defense. This is exactly what Rush offers. The 13-and-5 he averaged at KU is not out of question by year 2 for the Pacers.

PM PBJ: 08 Draft, Free Agency, 2010 Hoopla

Basketball stays busy. Even in July, after the Finals.

The Draft. Free Agency. The hoopla of 2010--if there will be any.

From Arthur to White:

The NBA Draft featured plenty of star power. Up front, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley, and OJ Mayo headlined a cluster of potential all-stars. Russell Westbrook qualified as the night's biggest surprise, leapfrogging Kevin Love, Jerryd Bayless, and Brook Lopez into an Oklahoma City uniform with the fourth pick.

But, how about the sleepers? Who fell under the radar with sonar talent?

1. Darrell Arthur, F, Memphis, 27th

This guy endured the most tumultuous draft night of any major prospect. Rated as a sure-fire lottery pick by some, he fell to the 27th pick, quietly watching his peers shake David Stearn's hand. On top of that, the team that selected him (New Orleans) actually picked for Portland, who promptly shopped him to Houston, who then wheeled him to Memphis.

Falling to the 27th pick and being traded three times in the same night? Meet recent NCAA Champion Darrell Arthur.

Everyone has their own theory for predicting success. See Malcolm Gladwell's video linked below. One indicator in the NCAA is performance against competition that is most-similar to the NBA. In that vein, one particular instance jumps out for Arthur: as a freshman at KU, he and and the Jayhawks beat defending (and future repeat) Champion Florida 82-80.

Sure it was November 25, not March 25. But Florida boasted the most NBA-esque front-court (and team) the NCAA has seen in the last decade: Joakim Noah, Al Horford, and Chris Richards. The first two are NBA starters and Richards, while he has the size, is not a surefire long-term pro. Regardless, they dominated college basketball. They led Florida to back-to-back championships.

How did Arthur fare against such adversaries as a freshman? He shined. In 16 minutes, he went 6-7 from the field for 19 points, grabbed 9 boards, and blocked a shot. Kansas won.

His teammate Julian Wright held his own that game. Went for 21-and-10. Wright matters in the NBA. He is a contributor on one of the best teams. Expect something similar from Arthur. It will be difficult at first in a crowded Memphis front-court, but he has the skills to succeed in the NBA.

2. DJ White, F/C, Oklahoma City, 29th

Does any player fit better in the Sonics' front-court?

White is skilled, rugged, and consistent. He is basically a younger Antonio McDyess. Not the high-flying McDyess of the Nugget years. But the 12-and-8 one of today. White can do that. Maybe even this year.

Sure his team flopped in the NCAA Tournament, but they also endured one of the more bizarre collegiate seasons ever. White and his former teammate Eric Gordon are very good players. They are just as ready as anyone in this draft class to compete in the league.

Besides White, only five other players in the 08 Draft averaged at least 10 rebounds and 15 points in the 08 NCAA: Michael Beasley, Jason Thompson, Kevin Love, Ryan Anderson, and Richard Hendrix. Not bad company.

3. Patrick Ewing Jr., Sacramento, 43rd

Definitely fell off the draft radar after his brief and disastrous stint as a Hoosier.

But steadily improved under John Thompson III at Georgetown. Like his old teammate Jeff Green, Ewing is a good all-around player. He is a also lock-down defender.

It will be interesting to see how he, Green, and Hibbert pan out in the pros. After one cumulative professional season (Green's rookie campaign), it is too early to judge, but the Georgetown style might translate very well into NBA success. Their branded player movement, outside shooting, man-to-man defense, and perimeter skills are all hallmarks of the better NBA players and systems.

Ewing reminds of a young Bruce Bowen. Tall and athletic. Smart and tough. He is not a lights-out shooter, but don't be surprised if he earns minutes as a defensive ace and then as a corner-three-point shooter. Come back to this pick in 5-6 years and see how he has fared.

4. Bill Walker, G/F, Celtics, 47th

No rookie enters a better situation than Walker.

He joins the best team in the NBA led by some of the best veterans in the game: Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and Kevin Garnett. The 08 NBA Champs do not need Walker to do anything special There is no pressure on him. If he flames out because of injury, there is no great expense.

But if Walker takes off, it is a win-win. The Celtics add yet another cheap role player to Leon Powe, Big Baby, and Rajon Rondo and Walker gets to compete every day against KG, Pierce, and maybe James Posey (or Corey Maggette). It is the ultimate laboratory for basketball.

Practicing against these guys and being part of their team really has no down-side. They are Champions and consummate teammates. They could very well be the final ingredient for Walker's maturation into an everyday NBA player.

5. Danilo Gallinari, F, New York Knicks, 6th

Okay the 6th pick does not necessarily qualify for "under the radar," but given the treatment Gallinari has received, it's important to note that...

A new era is dawning in Madison Square Garden. Mike D'Antoni and Donnie Walsh started it, and this pick, albeit surprising and booed, punctuates it. The Knicks are starting to build for the future. Instead of picking for cachet and quick applause, they opted for long-term rewards and a major building block.

Don't forget that this guy has stood out in the Euroleague for the last 18 months. No it is not the NBA, but it is catching up to the American league and for a 19-year old to have this kind of success is encouraging. He is big and well-rounded. Strong and aggressive. Unselfish and effective. 15-and-6 is not out of the question this year, even though 10-and-5 is more likely. But again, the reason for the pick was for his production in years 3, 4, and 5.

So like Ewing, come back to this one and see how he projects then. It could turn out to be a major bargain.

And with all of that said, here are the preseason Rookie Ranks:

1. Greg Oden, C, Portland Trail Blazers
2. Derrick Rose, G, Chicago Bulls
3. Michael Beasley, F, Miami Heat
4. Kevin Love, C, Minnesota T-Wolves
5. OJ Mayo, G, Memphis Grizzlies

Steep Learning Curve:

1. Brook Lopez, C, New Jersey Nets--similar height and strength in the NBA will give him trouble in the early-going. Being on a terrible team does not help either.

2. Joe Alexander, F, Milwaukee Bucks--super player on the wrong team. Where does he play in the crowded Milwaukee wing rotation? Michael Redd and Richard Jefferson will dominate minutes and shots. But then again, Redd shined as Ray Allen's understudy. So maybe Alexander will follow suit and overcome the obvious hurdles.

3. DJ Augustin, G, Charlotte Bobcats--one of the more confusing picks in the Draft. Don't they already have a small, young PG in Raymond Felton? Are they already ditching that plan for Augustin? Is Augustin durable enough to start in 50+ games? Yuck.

4. Russell Westbrook, G, Oklahoma City--easily one of the better defenders and all-around players in the draft. But that's only average in the NBA. Against similar competition, he will encounter some growing pains, especially if running an offense from the get-go. But by the end of the season, he could work his way into All-Rookie Second Team consideration. The downside of being drafted 4th? The expectation it carries.

5. OJ Mayo, G, Memphis Grizzlies--first off, SS has little doubt that he will evolve into a superior NBA player (see pre-season ranks!), but at first it could be tough. The expectations and hype will be high in the early going and the competition rather fierce. Similar to the cases of Westbrook and Lopez, Mayo will face opponents who are his physical and talent equals and the natural success he found in the NCAA will not come as quickly in the NBA. Again, being on a very bad team is never fun. While Rose and Beasley join potential playoff teams, Mayo's team hopes to win 30 games. By the end of the season however, Mayo will be in the conversation for All Rookie First Team.


Free Agency:

The only real story from this year's free agency is Baron Davis, at least so far. If Josh Smith bolts for Philadelphia, we have another, but for now, Davis is the extent of the discussion.

By leaving Golden State and going to Los Angeles, four important issues stood out:

1. The Nellie-ball era now seeks its new leader. Monta Ellis? In all fairness, Golden State's run at the playoffs is over, especially in the crowded Western Conference.

2. The Shaun Livingston Clipper experience is over. Probably one of the more somber stories in the past few seasons. Nevertheless, Livingston could very well come back with a different jersey when fully healthy. Remember DeMarr Johnson? He made it back. Even though Livingston's injury was far more grave than Amare Stoudemire's knee injury, it should give him hope that with medical wizardry a lot is still very possible. After all, at 6-7, he still has the height to play 3 positions.

3. If Elton Brand returns to the Clippers, they have a shot at the Playoffs. Not necessarily a guarantee, but they could entertain thoughts of a 7 or 8-seed.

4. And most importantly, the appeal of NBA Superstars takes another step up. Why else is Gilbert Arenas worth so much money to the Wizards? Even though it is a basketball league, the NBA is entertainment. So it is only logical that the league's best showman reap some of the largest rewards. Whether this is good or bad for the game remains to be seen. But the NBA is definitely lurching toward a very commercial and glittery image.

2010 Hoopla?

There has been major speculation about the summer of 2010, even two years out. LeBron to New Jersey? Dwyane Wade to the Knicks? Chris Bosh to New Jersey too?

The only thing for certain is this: there will be two full NBA seasons before 2010. Two more drafts. A very important Olympic Games. Two more NBA Playoffs runs.

Remember that Chris Bosh just got a new 7-foot lefty friend in Jermaine O'Neal and that Wade now has Beasley as a running mate. Their incentives to bolt definitely shrunk in the past month. As for LeBron, he will always be from Akron, OH, and that has to mean something to him. Even though he wears a Yankees cap to Indians games, he still plays for the Cavs in Cleveland. What happens if they win the 2009 NBA Finals? What if New Jersey's team offers little more than Cleveland's roster does? Ditto the Knicks?

Also, the media-market explanation is extremely short-sighted. There are several forces competing with that dated notion, once driven by printed media and television. Both of those media are taking a back-seat to the internet and consumer choice. By 2010, the biggest basketball medium will be whatever internet package the NBA/ESPN/League Pass offers. Remember that from all indications, China is the next big basketball market. And with the internet providing most of the content, what difference does New York or Cleveland make in Shenzhen? Madison Square Garden is no longer basketball's biggest stage. The internet makes the driveway just as marketable.

Similarly, winning far out-weighs everything. LeBron, Wade, etc. will have major endorsements no matter where they play, and the championship bug will always haunt them. Both have had major success early in their career (especially Wade), but both also hope to enter the pantheon. If New Jersey and New York can offer better teams and systems than Cleveland and Miami, well then the choice is rather obvious. But if they cannot, the discussion lacks serious potency.

As exciting as it would be for all of these players to jump ship and move to NYC, they may not. Any of them.