Playoff Pit-Stop #4: East

So far my bold Playoff predictions have flopped. Totally flopped.

Sure N'awlins beat the Mavs and the Laker swept the Nuggets, but I had the Suns going to the NBA Finals...

In the East, I picked the Wizards to defeat the Cavs in 7 and yet, LeBron and Co. begin the East Semi's tonight against the Celtics. Even that pick I fumbled. But then again, who saw the Hawks coming together and playing so well and so hard? Pushing the Celtics to 7 games!?

Well despite my prophetic shortcomings, I turn my focus from the West (where I have spent a lot of time) to the East, where the rivalries, intensity, and plots are really picking up.

1. The Pistons won yesterday.

Yes, there was a shot-clock and timing mistake at the end of the third quarter. Yes Billups' 3 gave the Pistons a much-needed boost going into the 4th quarter. But in every game there are countless officiating mistakes and wrinkles that produce the same swing and frustration.

The great teams play through the nonsense. At the end of the game, the Pistons were that team. Not only because they won (a convenient argument) but also because of how they won. The won the fourth quarter. The Magic panicked and botched their final play.

Maybe this argument is contrarian, but there were so many factors that contributed to the Magic's loss yesterday, that it seems unfair and untrue to blame the shortcoming on the 3rd quarter clock malfunction. How about Rashard Lewis, Dwight Howard, and Hedo Turkoglu's combined 17 TOs--more than double the Pistons total? What about a total of 17 bench points in the first two games?

2. LeBron James is the toughest match-up in the NBA for the Celtics.

No single player averaged more points against the 66-win Green this year than Mr. James. 32.3 ppg in 3 very competitive games. Note that James sat out the December 2 80-70 Boston win.

So maybe a better analysis is a 2-1 Cavs advantage from the regular season?

That sounds rather foreboding, especially when coupled with LeBron's production in those three games, and the Celtics problems containing Joe Johnson in Round 1. While Johnson is a better shooter than him, James is essentially a better version of the Hawks scorer. He's a little bigger, a little stronger, a little more skilled, and a much better penetrator.

So Boston, who is D'ing up LeBron James?

For argument's sake, let's say they take the Let-LeBron-Get-35-But-Stop-Everybody-Else route, which I believe to be the best plan. This is exactly what the Wizards did not do and it really hurt them. In essence, they focused all of their D on him, and not only did he overcome that, but he also set up his teammates. When LeBron can be the play-maker, he is most-effective.

He busts into the lane and hits Delonte West for an open 12-footer, Wally Sczerbiak or Daniel Gibson for a 25-footer, or Big Z for an easy two. That game plans works against 90% of the NBA teams.

It does not work against teams that play good team D, namely the San Antonio Spurs and Boston Celtics. They recover and rotate well. They defend the right spots (read: the basket and corner three's). The Spurs figured this out in the NBA Finals and swept the Cavs. Sure the C's lost twice to the Cavs, but I think they figured the same thing out. Not that they messed around against the Hawks, but I expect them to bring their collective focus and D to a whole new level tonight.

With all that said and no matter how they defend the Cavs, LeBron will win a game (or two) in this series for the Cavs. He is that good. That effective. The real issue: Can his 'mates win the other 2?

As I wrote before though, I think his teammates will let him down. One of the reasons the Hawks did so well against the Celtics was because of their balance, athleticism, and surprise-factor. One minute it was Josh Smith. Then Al Horford. Then Josh Childress. Then it's Joe Johnson.

That dynamic is so far from what the Cavs boast. Cleveland is a one-trick pony. A great one-trick pony, but fatally predictable. I think the Celtics understand it and will shut it down and win in 6.

3. MVP? MVP!

As I mentioned before, Kobe Bryant is my MVP for the 2007-8 NBA regular season. If the voting included the first few weeks of the Playoffs (it shouldn't, but let's imagine for argument), is he still the MVP?

I would take Chris Paul.