NBA Playoffs: Eastern Conf. Preview

Every other year an Eastern Conference team wins, right? '04 Pistons, '06 Heat, '08...

As much as the Western Conference is bigger, badder, stronger as a Conference, there are still top-flight teams in the East, namely the 66-win Celtics, the consistently good Detroit Pistons, and the Atlanta Hawks. Okay not the Atlanta Hawks.

In an East v. West tug-of-war, the West dominates. But in the NBA Playoffs, the last man standing takes the crown. That team could very well come from East of the Mississippi (where all Radio Stations begin with a W-!).

So without further ado, here is how the Eastern Conference bracket will shape up. From the top:

(1) Boston Celtics v. (8) Atlanta Hawks

There are probably 9 people who believe the Hawks have a chance. For the first time since the Steve Smith-Mookie Blaylock-Dikeme Mutombo Bulls fodder teams, they finally have something brewing. Namely they have Al Horford. Joe Johnson is a great 2nd option on an elite team and Josh Smith is a rare player--defensively, dunkingly, blockingly--but that's really about it.

Mike Bibby is not the best fit for this team. He's a hold-over from the shoot-first PG era with other distinguished alumni Steve Francis, Stephon Marbury, Jason Terry, Allen Iverson, Tony Delk, Nick Van Exel, Bobby Jackson, etc. Those guys are all good scorers, but distributors? That's what the Hawks really need.

This among many other reasons is why the Celtics paste the Hawks. 4-0.


(4) Cleveland Cavaliers v. (5) Washington Wizards

Third time is the charm? Best way to beat LeBron is to bait him? A healthy Wizards team is an Elite 8 NBA team?

Yes, yes, and yes is what the Wizards and a lot of NBA analysts are thinking these days. And with good reason. In the Cavs' last 12 games, they went 4-8. Lost to the Bulls twice, the Bucks, and should have lost 1 if not 2 more to the Sixers. Every team has been talking about momentum heading into the Playoffs (why are the Mavs so excited after beating the Hornets!?). Right now, even with 30-7-7 LeBron, the Cavs have none. What's more, they have a lot of question marks. They never jelled following the Big Trade with Chicago and Seattle. The last two years, even with limited players, the Cavs had a specific plan and everybody was on board. Everyone knew how to play. With this group, they just look lost.

As for the Wizards, they went 7-5 in their last 12. Yes they lost to the Bucks as well, but they also beat the Celtics and the other four losses came to four of the best teams in the league: Lakers, Pistons, Jazz, Magic. On top of that, everybody is on the same page here. With Arenas coming off the bench and buying into the DeShawn Stevenson Basketball Psychology, they are playing like a team. Antawn Jamison is playing the best basketball of his career, Caron Butler is a bona fide All-Star, guys like Roger Mason Jr. and Andray Blatche make significant contributions, and the Etan Thomas-Brendan Haywood drama has finally subsided. They have the momentum.

I hate picking against LeBron, because he is LeBron, but the Wizards are a better team this time around. I think this series ends up looking a lot like the 1997 Heat-Magic series, where Penny Hardaway went bananas but came up short against a better team. The '08 Wizards are not the '97 Heat, but the comparison holds because LeBron does not have much more (Big Z and Wally) than Penny did then (Derek Strong and Danny Shayes).

Wizards in 7, 4-3.


(3) Orlando Magic v. (6) Toronto Raptors

Is there any other Playoff team that looks more confused than the Raptors? I just explained how mixed up the Cavs are, but the Raptors have them beat.

There was a time when the Raptors were the next big things. When Chris Bosh outplayed Dwight Howard. On February 7, 2007, Bosh dropped 41 on Howard as the Raptors rolled 113-103. A month later, Bosh went for 34-16 and the Raptors beat the Magic 92-85 while Howard went 5-13 from the field for 17-12. But a lot has changed for the Raptors since last spring.

For one, they lost 6 more games this year. Statistically, they were better last year. Second, and more importantly, Andrea Bargnani took a step back this year. Instead of becoming a second-option, he became a second-rate big man. Third, Jorge Garbajosa went down for the year. He was their Shane Battier. Finally, they only won 6 of their last 12 (average for a 41-41 team), and 5 of those wins came against the Knicks, Bobcats, Bucks, Nets, and Heat. The last time they had a marquee win was March 26, at home, over a Richard-Hamilton-less-Pistons. Yikes.

There is no way they can beat the Magic 4 times. Not with their own struggles, not with how well Dwight Howard is playing, not with how much Hedo Turkoglu has improved, and definitely not with the way Rashard Lewis allows them to spread the floor. The Magic sweep, 4-0.


(2) Detroit Pistons v. (7) Philadelphia Sixers

A lot of folks, like ESPN's Tim Legler, have talked up the Sixers in this series. They have not picked them to win, but they have pointed out how well the Sixers are playing (despite the odd-last-second loss to the Cavs on Monday night). To their credit, they have been among the best teams since the All-Star break.

But they also lost their last four games of the season, failed to get the six-seed and the Magic as an easier match-up, and have not beaten a full-strength Pistons team more than once (their April 9 win came against the Richard-Hamilton-less version with Rasheed playing 19 minutes).

So as much as the 2-2 series record looks interesting, it is also misleading. Ever since the '03 T-Mac Magic took the Pistons to 7-games in the first round in 2003, the Pistons have gone 16-3 in the opening frame. This year will be no different. Pistons in 5, 4-1.

That gives us:


(1) Boston Celtics v. (5) Washington Wizards

As much as I agonized over the Wizards-Cavs series, the victor really does not stand a chance against the Celtics. For all of the Washington Big 3 talk, they really do not hold a candle against the KG Green.

First of all, this is where the half-court battles and fresh legs start to matter. Who on the Wizards is guarding KG for 40 minutes-a-night? How does the Wizards bench compete in game 5 when the starters are tired after the 7-game Cavs series and Boston's depth? Sure they picked up a really nice win on April 9, 109-95 over the Celtics, but they will have a lot of difficulty repeating that feat more than once.

If the Wizards faced the Celtics in Round 1, it would be a lot more interesting. Given the excitement and motivation in their locker room, they could push the series to six-games. But after a hard-fought series with the Cavs and up against a well-rested, coming-off-a-sweep Celtic team, they really cannot push this farther than 5. Celtics advance 4-1.


(2) Detroit Pistons v. (3) Orlando Magic

Both of these teams will enter feeling like they can win. They split the season series 2-2, they should both defeat their first round opponents in 5 games, and they will both the be the wiser after last year's brief encounter in the '07 Playoffs (Detroit swept).

As much experience as the Magic are building, with Lewis' jaunts into the Playoffs for the Sonics, Turkoglu's battles for the '04 Spurs and '00-03 Kings, and the team's appearance last year, they are still finding their identity as a team. In a simplistic sense, it boils down to Dwight Howard's killer instinct. As he goes, so does this team.

At 22, Dwight Howard has already put together a spectacular NBA career. Averaged four straight double-doubles, taken the Magic from a joke to a 50-win team, won the NBA Slam Dunk Contest, and solidified himself as the best Center in the league. With that said, I have always felt like Howard played the game without thinking too much. The NBA has been fun for him. The Dunks, the blocks, the media, Disney World, the Slam Dunk competition.

But it has not gotten serious yet. He has put together streaks which suggest that he is ready to take it to another level. His creativity in the '07 and '08 Slam Dunk contests suggested really remarkable things. Feats that other great Big Men--David Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon, Tim Duncan--could not fathom.

Ultimately, I think 2008 is too early for Howard. Too early for the Magic. These Pistons are too good, too mean, too together. Dwight Howard does not have that Playoff tested instinct yet. That's what this comes down to. I don't think it's his personality. But I think he is learning. I think he gets it. He just hasn't put it all together yet.

Accordingly, the Pistons win 4-2.


And in the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals,

(1) Boston Celtics v. (2) Detroit Pistons

The heavy-weight match-up. Two best records in the NBA. Two of the most experienced, balanced, focused attacks. Defense. Offense. Amir Johnson.

Thanks to "Big Baby" Davis, the Celtics stole the regular season series, 2-1. But does that mean much?

The Pistons won the first game by 2, and then the Celtics won by 7 and finally 12. The first one felt like a Playoff game. The scene was electric. The game went back-and-forth. All of the big players made big plays. Chauncey Billups, of course, iced the game with free-throws after drawing a foul on Tony Allen. The Celtics, 12 game home-winning streak was on the line. Major bragging rights and confidence.

Similarly, the second match up held the same high-drama. The Pistons entered on an 11-game winning streak. The Celtics needed 20 surprising points from rookie reserve Glen Davis to win 92-85. In the final go-around, the Celtics clinched their spot in the Playoffs with the win. Like before, they meant business. It showed and it tipped the series balance in their favor.

But I don't think it really mattered all that much. By that time, it was clear to both of these teams that they would be the 1-2 seeds in the East and that they would meet again in late May with a lot more on the line.

But of all the regular season developments, I think "Big Baby's" step-up performance mattered the most. This series is going to come down to who steps up. The stars are going to play like the experienced, win-or-go-home generals they are. The KG-Pierce-Allen trio will cancel out the Billups-Hamilton-Prince-Wallace quartet. Again, whichever team finds unlikely heroes will win this series.

As good as the Pistons bench is, it is also young. Jason Maxiell, Jarvis Hayes, and Flip Murray have some Playoff experience, but they do not have the experience of Boston's bench. As much youth as Boston has in Davis, Leon Powe, and Allen, it also has battle-worn Champions in Sam Cassell and James Posey and a real bruising veteran in P.J. Brown. The Pistons have seen the best from Posey and Davis, but they have not faced the Celtics with both Cassell and Brown. Their presence makes all the difference. It is huge. It gives Boston a very special edge in this series.

When Detroit's Big 4 wear down after by Game 6, the Jason Maxiell-Hayes-Rodney Stuckey-Murray group will get some serious minutes. Think Detroit is a little worried about that group at this stage in the Playoffs? Are any of these guys working the refs on every call? Any of them calling audibles? Any of them making huge plays?

When Boston's Big 3 start to break down in that Game 6, the Cassell-Brown-Posey-Davis-Eddie House unit get to take their chances. The drop-off from the starting line-up is minimal. That of course is intentional. And it is the advantage here. Think the Celtics are the least bit worried about Cassell running the pick-and-roll with KG while Posey and House spot up on the perimeter? Cassell coaching the game and working the refs? Nope. It might be the best play they have.

I have written before about players who step up in these moments. The Robert Horry's and Steve Kerr's. Sam Cassell has made a career out of it. Game 6's in a tight fourth quarter: Balls Dance. James Posey has hit the big 3's down the stretch. Eddie House has spotted up for the '06 Suns. P.J. Brown has fought the Ewing Knicks. Those things matter.

Lindsay Hunter and Antonio McDyess brought that kind of spark off the bench for the Pistons in '04 and '05. But Hunter is a non-factor now and McDyess is a starter. In 2008, there is nobody on that bench ready to carry the torch in crunch time.

For these reasons and behind Garnett, the Celtics advance in six, 4-2.