From 5,000 Feet: El Bron is More Than...

In 2002, a film student, Kristopher Belman, approached coach Dru Joyce about making a film focusing on the high school basketball team at St. Vincent-St. Mary's in Akron, OH. Joyce agreed and the aspiring film director started to make a movie about the elite high school basketball team. Calculated risk for a school a project, right? What the hell.

SVSM featured Dru Joyce's son, Dru Joyce III, and a handful of III's friends, including Romeo Travis and LeBron James. From the perspective of 2009, what's more amazing: El Bron's journey since 2002 or the vision of the Belman?

It's fair to say the film, More Than a Game, will at least be interesting. After all, LeBron James is interesting. Will it rival Hoop Dreams as the king of basketball documentaries? William Gates and Arthur Agee are tough to beat, but More did open at the Toronto Film Festival, which isn't the minor leagues.

The one obvioius caveat about More: we all know what happens. No one outside of the Chicago Public Leagues knew who Gates and Agee were in the mid-90s. That added to the suspense of Hoop Dreams. Everybody knows LeBron. Oddly enough, that too could help the film. After all, everybody knew what happened at the end of Michael Jordan to the Max, but it was still awesome. Ever see Man on Wire? Milk?

Either way, the limited release on October 2 and the several years to finish the film only add to the hype. Count me among the excited.

Playoff Pit Stop #1: Hi My Name is Chauncey

Back for the playoffs: saulsierce.com and Chauncey Billups.

saulsierce returns after the second of two unfortunate hiatuses. Billups never really left.

True, he took a step back last year. All of the 2004 Pistons did. But he's still the wily fullback. He still has range. And he still doesn't lose many games. While 09 Pistons sunk to 43 losses, Billups and his new friends, the Denver Nuggets, cruised to 54 wins in the loaded West.

Billups wasn't alone in the big game pub over the weekend. Entering Bulls-Celtics tonight, ten players went for 25 or more. Billups wasn't even the leading scorer among them. The odds-on 08-09 MVP, El Bron, took home those honors with 38. Even a rookie, Derrick Rose, matched Billups point-for-point, with 36. But let's remember a few things: El Bron does this once-a-week and Derrick Rose will gravitate back to the mean. That's not to diminish Rose's effort and the big W in Boston--it just needs some perspective.

Billups? Not only did Billups hit eight threes, he and the Nuggets thumped the Hornets. It was never that close of a game. Now Billups didn't exclusively guard Chris Paul and the reverse is also true, but 36 is 36 and 8 three-pointers are a ton, especially come playoff time, when everyone is hoping to find a rhythm. Dig a littler deeper, and the output takes on some more meaning when considering the mighty Lakers have one glaring weakness: point guard play.

Derek Fisher and Jordan Farmar are the Lakers' weak links. At every other position, they are stacked. But they don't have elite point guard play. Derek Fisher has always been an undersized shooting guard. It's never been a big issue because Kobe Bryant is so effective with the ball in his hands. Ditto Lamar Odom. Farmar took a big step forward in 07-08, but then regressed in 08-09. It's not a glaring weakness because the Lakers can compensate for it with Bryant, Trevor Ariza, Lamar Odom, et al.

The teams that have foiled the Lakers in this decade have always had effective point guard play:

2003 Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
2004 Chauncey Billups, Detroit Pistons
2005 (No Playoffs)
2006 Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns
2007 Steve Nash, Phoenix, Suns
2008 Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics

Of those four, Rondo isn't hyper-elite. He's not any kind of MVP. He was not the reason the Celtics defeated the Lakers in 2008 Finals. But he was also not ineffective. To be fair, Parker wasn't hyper-elite in 03, but like Rondo in 08, he got into the paint and let the others take it from there.

So as mighty as the 09 Lakers are, they are beatable. The kind of team that could beat them is the Nuggets. The most important reason is Billups. It doesn't hurt that he has a balanced team around him: JR Smith, Carmelo, Kenyon Martin, Nene, Linas Kleiza, Chris Andersen, et al. But it starts with him: he facilitates it all. Billups scores when necessary (last night), gets everybody involved (08-09 season), and generally guarantees his team will be competitive (04-present). Forget all the talk about the Pistons going to the Conference Finals from 03-08. Focus on Billups going to the Conference Finals from 03-08.

Everybody heard about Billups' big game last night (Hooray internet). But it reverberated in LA. Sure it's a long way away (the NBA Playoffs take forever) and the West is competitive, but we're inching toward Nuggets-Lakers.

The Celtics will figure out Derrick Rose. They'll post him up and slow him down. Aaron Brooks, as surprisingly effective as he is, will come back to earth. El Bron will do what he's been doing all season: fill it up and push the Cavs toward the Finals. But keep an eye on Billups. He's always had a big bag of tricks. But he's up to something this year.

It's reminiscent of the Man With No Name: playing it cool, quietly going about things, but always taking care of business. He's not rushing anything, but he's pulling the Nuggets along. He's more than a shooter, but he's still a gunner. He's like Clint Eastwood in high tops.

In the big situations, he chews his cigar, eyes his opponent, and make his move.

Chauncey Billups 1, Hornets 0.

With Chauncey Billups leading the way, the 2009 Playoffs aren't going to disappoint.

--
And if haven't seen it, the Man With No Name Trilogy--namely The Good Bad And The Ugly--doesn't either.

Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's # 2

4 Philadelphia 76ers

Count me among the reactionary majority who thought, "With Elton Brand, this team is really nice." They go with Andre Miller, Andre Iguodala, Thad Young, Brand, and Dalembert, and they look like a diet, East Coast version of the Spurs.

I got all excited: "the Sixers can challenge for the East!" When the Celtics hit the championship hangover wall in January, who will be at their heels? "The Sixers!" Who's a sure-fire 3rd seed in the East? "The Sixers!"

I even included them in my "cluster of elites" in the Eastern Conference (see below). In my initial calculation, these guys were a Bentley.

But the more I looked at this team and the rest of the East, the car didn't start as smoothly as I expected. The Celtics and Pistons are still at the top. The Cavs didn't make huge improvements, but they sure didn't get worse. The Magic? They only added a premium perimeter defender, one Mickael Pietrus, who doesn't need to shoot to be effective. It doesn't hurt that Dwight Howard got a year older and is surrounded by tall, skilled shooters.

The Raptors? They finally promoted Jose Calderon and traded TJ Ford for a 6' 11" pal for Chris Bosh. What's more, it's a motivated 6' 11" Jermaine O'Neal and Chris Bosh dominated during the Olympics.

The Sixers? Yes they added Elton Brand. But all 6-foot-8 of Elton Brand didn't look so hot during the preseason. He also tore his achilles. I mentioned this previously, but I don't know anyone who's torn an achilles. Didn't it kill Achilles? This doesn't mean it's uncurable--from all signs, Brand has recovered--but there isn't a precedent for achilles-tear-to-All-Star. What's more, the reason that the Sixers were such a tough out in the Playoffs was because of their style: run, run, run. The Pistons had trouble keeping up and setting thier infamous pace.

So they added Brand? The quintessential plotter PF? I'm not saying this a sinking ship, but I don't think it adds up to a playoff winner either.

Saab.

#6 seed in the East. 1st round exit.


5 Dirk Nowitzki, F, Dallas Mavericks

"Remember me? 2007 MVP?"

Not many in the NBA have endured a tougher 18 months than Herr Nowitzki. To top off the 07 and 08 playoff stinkbombs, his German national team tanked it in the Olympics. They weren't a top flight contender, but they went 1-3 and didn't even entertain thoughts about the medal round.

So unlike, say (ironically), Dwyane Wade, Nowitzki enters the 08-09 season with marginal expectations. While Wade rides high with a gold medal and buzz and interest, Big D and Dirk are completely under the radar. No one expects better than the 6-spot in the West; some envision a Nugget-like tail spin. Either way, there hasn't been a lot of hype about a wiedergeburt in Dallas. It's felt more like the last go-round in beat-up old car.

I've never put much stock in NBA coaches, but Rick Carlisle is an interesting one. His first season with the Pacers in 03-04, they won the most games in the league: 61. He played for the 86 Champion Celtics. His players have always liked him. If anything, he's the anti-Avery Johnson. He's laissez-faire. He's let it be.

How does all of this effect Nowitzki? In some ways, it's a return to Nowitzki's younger years with Don Nelson. Instead of a measured, specific plan, it's a more open, relaxed approach. It also doesn't hurt that instead second-guessing Nowitzki's killer instinct, everyone is trying to decipher Josh Howard.

We know how Dirk has performed under scrutiny and heightened expectation. How about when there isn't either one?

Bentley. 25+ ppg.


6 Miwaukee Bucks

This teams is full of scorers: Michael Redd, Richard Jefferson, Charlie Villanueva, Andrew Bogut, Charlie Bell, and Joe Alexander. Each of these players looks for one thing on the floor: a shot. That's not a knock: all six of these guys can fill it up. But let's be clear. They are not stoppers.

Their new coach? He's the ultimate, tight-leash, defense-first coach. He wore out his welcome in Phoenix and Chicago. He found unexpected initial success with young, tough players, but then they all gave up on him. His approach works with those kinds of players: first-contract players, hungry to prove themselves, win, and get paid.

This team? They're not young and the majority of them are already paid. Redd through 2010. Jefferson through 2011. Bogut through 2014. Bell through 2012. Even Dan Gadzuric is paid through 2011.

The two guys who are young, hungry, and unpaid? Villanueva and Alexander. Sure they were tough Big East players, but neither one was a lock-down defender. Both excel on offense. Is this all going to change when Skiles shows up and the team's leaders don't buy into his philosophy?

Even the team's up-and-coming point guard, Ramon Sessions, seems the opposite from its coach. In the last seven games of 07-08 season, Session topped 10 assists six times. With starters minutes, he blew up. He even dropped 24 assists in a late-season loss to the Bulls. How does that translate under the Skiles regime?

The expectations in Milwaukee are conservative. No one is yelling playoffs, but there isn't much talk of 60 losses either. This team lost 56 games last year. 60 isn't too far off.

Saab.

60 losses. Lott-er-y. Mid-season fire-sale. Michael Redd, Charlie Bell, and Villanueva all packing their bags.

[Also, if Redd ends up in Cleveland via trade for the title run, could there be a better side-kick for LeBron? Every barrel roll to the hoop will free up a) Mo Williams and b) Michael Redd. The Bucks alumni could quickly become the most important additions. Sorry Bynum, Andrew, Oden, Greg, O'Neal, Jermaine, and Mason, Roger.]

Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's # 1

At the outset of each new season, the media and league anoint a handful of players and teams. Last year, the new-look Boston Celtics held the banner while players like Dwight Howard and Chris Bosh filled conversations. They were the potential Bentley's of 2007-8. Big time teams and players, ready to make a leap.

Was there some skepticism about them? You bet.

After all, the obvious defect of the eventual Champion Celtics was their age. Despite their best efforts, Sam Cassell and Ray Allen began to fulfill this thinking.

Similarly, there were doubts about Howard--"he's still 21"--and Chris Bosh--"he's too skinny."

But like big, bad, beautiful Bentley's, this handful of folks defeated their skeptics; they lived up to the expectations. In the end, the Celtics won it all, Howard won the Slam Dunk contest and a playoff series, and Bosh carried an inconsistent Raptors bunch back to the playoffs. On the surface they looked stellar, and after a few hundred miles, they held form, like a Bentley.

That's not to say that all skepticism about NBA teams and players goes unproven. Some look great on the surface, but are deficient underneath. Think of the 2007-8 Miami Heat. This group we qualify as Saab's. You expect a steady performer, but it doesn't reach expectations: it breaks down and can't even hold all of the boxes.

Without further ado, here is the first group of SS's Skeptical Bentley's and Saab's.

1 Chris Paul, G, New Orleans Hornets

It seems odd to include Chris Paul in any skeptical discussion. As I mentioned yesterday, he finished 2nd in MVP voting and he led the Hornets to the second round of the NBA Playoffs last year--no small feats.

A year ago, the expectations were fair: All-Star season, playoff appearance, double-double average.

What are the expectations this year? It's more like 60 wins, MVP, and NBA Championship. That's a pretty heavy bevy.

I think it's fair to say that Paul ran out of gas during the Olympics. After nearly 100 NBA games and then a dozen more for team USA, Paul bottomed out.

For these reasons and the unfair expectations placed upon him, I think Paul comes back to earth this year. Not in a mediocre sense, but in a more leveled sense.

With the new-look Rockets challenging for the division and the Lakers still very strong, Paul and the Hornets are right where they were a year ago--near the top of the West. Does the addition of James Posey and the extra miles on Paul translate into a Western Conference Finals appearance. I would say "no."

2008-9 projection: Saab

20-and-10, 50 wins, #4 seed, All-Star, second round of NBA playoffs


2 Portland Trail Blazers

It's easy to get excited about the Blazers. They are young. They are full of "nice" guys. They won 41 games last year. In a video game, they are far-and-away the most fun team. They have Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jerryd Bayless, Rudy Fernandez, AND Greg Oden.

Everybody wants to pencil them in for 50 wins, an opening playoff series win, and a nice, happy path towards eventual NBA supremacy.

Well, it's not going to be that easy. Especially in the Western Conference.

Let's take a look west of the Mississippi. Barring any long-term effects of Deron Williams' ankle injury, there a handful of elite, title-contending teams in the West:

1 LA Lakers
2 Utah Jazz
3 Houston Rockets
4 New Orleans Hornets

Then there is a group of older, but still very good teams:

5 San Antonio Spurs
6 Dallas Mavericks
7 Phoenix Suns

After them, a spat of intriguing teams:

Portland Trail Blazers
Denver Nuggets
GS Warriors
Sacramento Kings
LA Clippers

And finally, the lottery bound group:

13 Minnesota Timberwolves
14 Memphis Grizzlies
15 OK City Thunder

Would anybody be surprised if the Blazers leap-frogged one or two of the older teams? Ended up as the 6 seed and then took the Jazz to seven games?

Would you be surprised if they won 41 games again and finished 9th?

2008-9 projection: Saab

42 wins, 8th seed, swept by Lakers


3 Derrick Rose, G, Chicago Bulls

After a summer-league injury, Rose abruptly fell off of the radar. Everyone remembered Greg Oden, fell for Jerryd Bayless, and forgot about Rose.

Remember Marco Belinelli?

The Italian guard was the 2007 NBA Summer League version of Jerryd Bayless. He surprised everyone. Lit up the summer league.

In the end, that was Belinelli's apex. During the regular season, he averaged 7 minutes in 33 games for the Warriors.

Will Bayless fall off the same way? Probably not, but it's worth considering.

Rose is no slouch. He has shined so far in the preseason.

Helping his case are the moderate expectations placed on his team, the Chicago Bulls. Unlike the Blazers, whom they oddly resemble, the Bulls are not expected to jump into the playoff picture or win 50 games. If they get back to .500, everyone will be pleased.

Rookie coach Vinny del Negro will have a year under the belt. Rookie and new cornerstone Derrick Rose will have his sea legs. And the Ben Gordon saga will naturally run its course.

But come February, this team could be running at full steam with this group:

G Derrick Rose
G Larry Hughes
F Luol Deng
F Drew Gooden
C Joakim Noah

That's not a bad line-up. Then remember that a motivated, 1-year rental of Ben Gordon is the first guy off the bench, followed by Andreas Nocioni and improving Tyrus Thomas.

After some consideration, Derrick Rose has some nice droogs for running mates. Derrick Rose could still end up ROY and the Bulls could very well hop into one of the 7-8 playoffs spots.

For good measure, here's how the East stacks up.

Like in the West, there's a cluster of elites:

1 Boston Celtics
2 Detroit Pistons
3 Cleveland Cavs
4 Phila Sixers

Then there's a duo of almost-elite:

5 Toronto Raptors
6 Orlando Magic

followed by a mess of potential first round fodder:

Atlanta Hawks
Chicago Bulls
Miami Heat
Indiana Pacers

some major question marks:

11 Washington Wizards
12 Milwaukee Bucks
13 Charlotte Bobcats

and finally the lottery locks:

14 New York Knicks
15 New Jersey Nets

2008-9 projection: Bentley

16-and-6 per game, ROY, 8-seed

Re: Top 50

Tom Ziller finally unveiled his top 10. As a prognosticator, I didn't come very close.

Here's his (mine are below):

10 Yao Ming
9 Dwight Howard
8 Dirk Nowitzki
7 Amare Stoudemire
6 Dwyane Wade
5 Tim Duncan
4 Kevin Garnett
3 Kobe Bryant
2 Chris Paul
1 LeBron James

Given my previous predictions, I should have some beef with this decade. But after reading each of Ziller's posts and arguments, I was sold.

My major mistake in value estimation was Dwight Howard and I think Ziller has it right. He fits nicely at 9--above Yao, but below the Dirk/Amare unit and the Duncan/KG unit. After all, he does not have a jump shot, let alone a free-throw shot.

After evaluating all of this, the one question mark for SS is Chris Paul. More than ever, the Paul love-fest has emanated at the start of the 2008-9 season. It's well-deserved too, considering the All-Star campaign, insane PER score (projected to top 30 this year), NBA Playoff run, and Olympic display.

But to wax rhetorical, is he the second best player in the NBA? As Ziller argued, is he in the convo with craza Isaiah and Magic Johnson? He did finish second in MVP voting last year...

It's convenient to be a knee-jerk contrarian, especially when discussing young players, but the lasting image in my mind of Paul from the last year is not the All-Star game, not the Mavs Playoffs series, not even the SI cover--it's of him (and all of team USA) during the Olympics chasing Australian (and St. Mary's) point guard Paddy Mills down the court, failing to stop a younger, inferior point guard.


Sure, this is a unique and small sample, but I find it relevant.

This is not to say I doubt Chris Paul and his point guard prowess; I am merely stating my curiosity and skepticism. With that said, here is Saul Sierce's 2008-9 list of "skeptical bentley's and saab's..."

Vozvrashcheniye [the return]

After an extended two month hiatus, the writing restarts au jourdhui a saulsierce.com.

Basketball stayed busy over the past twelve weeks. From Elton Brand's flight to Philly to Vozvrashcheniye of Dwyane Wade, returns and renaissance have lately dominated the canon of basketball.

At the top, the return of USA Basketball reigns supreme. Cliche, yes. But still very important. After a long, cold eights years, we can finally say "No one on the corner has swagga like us."

But potentially more intriguing, if not predictable, is the return of NBA basketball. In less than a week, old rivals Detroit and Miami will kick off the 2008-9 NBA preseason: Michael Beasley and Rodney Stuckey. Dwyane Wade and Rip Hamilton.

So to prepare for the upcoming jolt of play, head over to fanhouse for Tom Ziller's breakdown of the top 50 players in the NBA. After running through picks 50-11, he unveils the top 10 this week. While many debate individual picks, the overall ranking is among the most complete and interesting ever compiled.

Antsy to see Ziller's top 10, here are my predictions:

10 Yao Ming

9 Dirk Nowitzki

8 Dwyane Wade

7 Amare Stoudemire

6 Kevin Garnett

5 Dwight Howard

4 Chris Paul

3 Tim Duncan

2 LeBron James

1 Kobe Bryant

More 08 Draft Discussion

After unveiling the Pre-season Rookie Ranks and going over the draft picks again, a few more thoughts jumped out:

1. Who is Jason Thompson, C, Sacramento Kings?

The big fella hails from Rider is a small private university with two campuses in Lawrenceville, NJ and Princeton, NJ. Thompson is the first Rider basketball player to ever be drafted. In 08 he was the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference POY and averaged over 20-and-10. He scored in double figures in all 34 of Rider's games. He also put up big numbers against superior competition:

He went for 24-and-15 in a 72-63 loss to North Carolina State. Then followed that up with 24-and-7 in an 82-69 loss to Kansas State. More importantly, he outplayed Michael Beasley, who uncharacteristically had just 13 points alongside 10 rebounds.

Against the toast of the MAAC, Siena, Thompson did the same: 23-and-21 in an 89-75 win, and 22-and-12 in a 74-53 loss. Recall that Siena, a 13-seed, dispatched Vanderbilt 83-62, before falling to Villanova 84-72 in the Tourney.

With that said, the numbers are obviously encouraging. So are the splits against the best competition he faced.

As a King, he will however face some obstacles and so it is difficult to project how he will perform. After all, this is essentially the same pick they made last year (Spencer Hawes, 10th pick). What's more, is he any better than Sheldon Williams, whom the Kings acquired from the Hawks in the Mike Bibby trade? With Brad Miller, Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mikki Moore, Hawes, and Williams already in the mix, Thompson's minute will likely be slim.

2. Remember Chris Doulgas-Roberts, G, New Jersey Nets?

The Memphis Tiger slasher fell to the fortieth pick.

Unlike Thompson, CDR is a known commodity. He got plenty of TV time with the elite Tigers--especially in the Tennessee showdown and the NCAA tournament.

A lot of folks point to the Tennessee game and the Kansas Championship game as a measuring stick because they were the two toughest games of the season for CDR and the Tigers. They were also Memphis' only two losses.

In the UT game, Doulgas-Roberts was rather ineffective, notching just 14 points in the 66-62 loss. As for the KU Championship game, it is hard to call his performance a short-coming, considering his 22 points and the quality of the Jayhawks team. Regardless, he faced judgment for those two games and the Tigers ultimate second-place finish.

Is that the reason he fell to 40? Or is it because he is 6-5 and just 190 pounds? Or something else?

Whatever the reason, it is probably unfair because he can flat-out score. He is a classic NBA SG and an underrated defender. On a team like the 2009 Nets, everyone will get their chances, and that is essentially what CDR needs. Don't be surprised if he busts out for a handful of 20-point games. Let the young Rip Hamilton comparisons begin.

3. There is not a better scenario for Brandon Rush than in the Pacers offense

The recent NCAA Champion was one of the most consistent players in the last three years. He averaged 13-and-5 each year in Lawrence, KS. While those numbers don't jump out, remember that he shared the ball with Julian Wright, Mario Chalmers, Darnell Jackson, Darrell Arthur, and even Sasha Kaun. He was never the featured player in the offense because no one was.

With that said, Rush is an elite player. Like most pundits have said, he is big at 6-7 and NBA-ready after his tenure at KU and a National Championship. On top of that, Jim O'Brien's offense in Indiana is tailor-made for players like Rush--effective mid-range and three-point scorers. This is not to say that Rush will evolve into an NBA All-Star (he very well may), but rather to project him as a career double-figure scorer in the NBA.

Every great team needs a player (or two) like Rush. Effective scorers who can hold their own on defense. This is exactly what Rush offers. The 13-and-5 he averaged at KU is not out of question by year 2 for the Pacers.